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UC Toxics News Winter/Spring 99  
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Lessons from Smog:
Improving Our Risk Assessments

by Mika Pringle Tolson

California’s population began exploding in the WWII era, and with the people came the cars. In 1940, the number of registered vehicles climbed to 2.8 million, and by the summer of 1943, visibility in Los Angeles was sometimes reduced to three blocks. People began to suffer from "gas attacks", irritated eyes, difficulty breathing, nausea and vomiting. The first recognized episodes of smog had occurred, and public outcry followed.

There was no history of dealing with environmental problems as a serious health threat before smog showed up on the radar screens of California public officials. "New institutions had to develop to confront a problem that in essence didn’t exist before," explains Joshua Dunsby, a doctoral student in Sociology at UC San Diego. Dunsby has been awarded a TSR&TP graduate fellowship to study the history of managing environmental risks. Dunsby’s research will look at how the culture – the beliefs and practices – of dealing with an environmental health problem developed through a historical investigation of air pollution politics in California from WWII to the mid-1970s, focusing on the smog problem. He explains, "It’s a contribution that will hopefully be an occasion for people to reflect on many taken for granted assumptions about environmental health decision-making."

According to Dunsby, "We are currently in a time when people are revisiting the issue of environmental risk and now we’re coming to question some of the methods we use for assessing risk."

Los Angeles air quality. Top to bottom: clear day, smoggy day with temparature inversion at 100 ft., full-scale LA smog. Photos by Los Angeles County Pollution Control District.
More than fifty years ago, people and government agencies banded together to do something about air pollution. As a result, California emerged as an environmental leader with nationally recognized regulatory agencies. But what have we learned from the process? Why does technical decision-making take the form it does in modern American society?

"It doesn’t seem to surprise people working in the risk assessment arena that the same issues keep popping up over and over, and no one seems to be able to explain why", says Dunsby. Many regulations handed down on the basis of risk assessments are under fire. Ozone standards are a good example of the recurring controversy. We are basing our regulations on risk assessments that may or may not be accurate and are continually revised. Examining how the process developed may improve the way risk assessments are conducted and help with future decision-making when the science is uncertain.

TSR&TP fellowship recipient
Joshua Dunsby. Courtesy photo.
Dunsby says, "We expect science to speak in a singular voice – that’s what people are taught and it becomes difficult to know how to deal with science in a public arena if that’s the expectation. Things are not simply decided by doing one more scientific study." With his doctoral research, Dunsby hopes to shed light on the way science fits into society and help us understand why the public and experts disagree. "Even if we’re doing excellent science, there are still sociological questions about how that science gets believed. I believe strongly that a better understanding of science and how it operates is one significant issue in the more heated controversies."
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